(7)Kefka vs (10)L-Block 2018
Ulti's Analysis This was one of the most hotly debated matches in round one, because it was widely believed the winner would be able to go on a deep contest run. Division 3 was perceived as being very weak, and it was well within the realm of possibility that the winner here would be able to win the entire division. The winner of this was almost guaranteed to make it to round 3. If that winner was L-Block, it was not impossible for a bandwagon effect to show up and hand the guy the entire contest. Anyone who claims they had a good beat on this either way was pretty much lying, because neither of these characters is predictable in the slightest. Kefka's contest history is well known for the guy never doing what he's supposed to do. The dude was supposed to easily beat Pac-Man but went 50-50 with him. He was supposed to easily lose to Knuckles but got super close until the morning vote. He was supposed to win a division but lost to Diablo. The 4ways are just a cluster of 'what'. He was supposed to lose to Arthas and beat Arthas's ass. He was supposed to lose to Zack, then won two 3way polls because of course he did. The only contest he's ever made sense in was the Rivalry Rumble, which says a lot. L-Block's runs don't make sense, either. Everyone knows about 2007, but he was making a run in 2008 too before Pikachu beat him. Then the guy gets to Charizard and can't break 40% on the guy, before beating Auron. I doubt most people would call Kefka stronger than Auron, yet here we are. This is a great example of why stats mean positively dick in these contests, especially when we haven't had a proper character battle in over a decade. I ended up picking L-Block, because whenever Kefka is the board favorite the dude falls flat on his face. That's the one predictable thing about this guy. Turns out we couldn't even rely on that much. In what was quickly becoming a pattern in this contest, this was never even a match. It's why so many of my writeups thusfar have been about esoteric feelings instead of match trends and cold facts. "Character A won the board vote and went from X% at the freeze to Y% by the end" 100 times just isn't interesting. That said it actually was interesting here, because debated matches turning into hilarious blowouts are always entertaining. L-Block was a threat to win this match and go on a deep contest run. Instead he lost in round one and made Kefka look as strong as Charizard. That's one hell of a feat, and it was another data point in a very real trend this contest -- people are beyond fed up with rallybait joke characters. Every single one of them got demolished this year, and L-Block was no exception. Lightning Strikes' Analysis What happened?: Ahhhh this match. A true headscratcher going in, nobody knew what to make of this one. The two most unpredictable characters in contest history going up against each other. And given that the winner almost certainly goes to round 3, it is a really key decision. And then Kefka came out and won easily, looking very strong early on. Of course that's how this goes, a classic debated match turned one-sided. Oh Kefka. What could this mean?: Trying to make heads or tails of this match is a fool's errand. Is Kefka a true elite? Or is the joke just dead? Who knows. Kefka never makes any sense. Safer777's Analysis You can't judge Kefka. Seriously. His contest history doesnt' make sense. He loses to weak opponents and beat strong opponents. Then sometimes he does as expected. And other times not. L-Block was the champion from 2007 as people said. Now the strange thing. In the contests after 2007 L-Block always managed to advance to the 3rd round! And now it lost to Kefka in the 1st round! I tell you,nothing makes sense anymore! So Kefka did good here. Or did he? Who knows? Personally I don't want to see L-Block again. The joke is done. Tsunami's Analysis No past champion has ever been completely absent from the field of a contest they were eligible for, though this would not be true had Brawl beaten Majora's Mask in GotD. And I don't expect L-Block to be the one to break that trend, if for no other reason that there's another past champion with a much better case for being dropped. (Also, I expect the next contest of any kind to be Game of the Decade in 2020, but let's be honest, Undertale deserves to make that field. It'll probably get anti-voted out of fear of a repeat of 2015, but it would be a crime if it missed the field entirely.) The narrative that is often pushed around here is that Board 8 hates all past rally targets, but L-Block is in fact a beloved contest institution. Look no further than what hir seed was in 2013. L-Block has taken over CATS' former role as the joke character that Board 8 loves, except L-Block actually has some form of contest strength. Speaking of Board 8's favorite jokes, let's give it up for the Clown Prince of Contest Wackiness! Though to be honest Kefka's recent results haven't been as uniformly weird as they're often made out to be. No, we didn't expect Kefka to make Round 3 last contest, but that's really only ''one ''unexpected result, not two. Only about 8% of Gurus took him to make it out of Round 1, and of those, 60% took him to Round 3. His two Round 2 opponents were heavily favored in their Round 1 matches, and they each had fewer picks to reach Round 3 than Kefka did to make Round 2. And that Arthas result? If I recall correctly, that was the result of Arthas winning an SFF battle against Diablo in fourways, since Diablo had beaten Kefka in Villains. But honestly it should've been obvious that Blizzard had declined significantly since Villains. It was a defensible pick--B8 even talked me into it--but Kefka's win shouldn't have been surprising, and only was because the board is conditioned to not expect Kefka to do what he ought to. In this contest... well, this is Division 3 so it's hard to say what "ought to" have happened. But the Kefka meme is getting a bit old. Category:2018 Contest Matches